The Weekly Edge: Week-Ahead & Look-Back, Mon 7 – Fri 11 Sep 2026

The week to Friday 11 September was dominated by a sharp Iran-driven oil shock: renewed tensions and tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, together with a larger-than-expected US inventory draw, sent WTI crude up 9.37% to $101.05, its strongest weekly gain in months. The resulting inflation scare pushed US Treasury yields to multi-year highs near 4.96% and hardened Fed-hike expectations, triggering a globally synchronised equity risk-off and a hawkish repricing across every major central bank on the calendar.

This week's highlights

• Equities: all fourteen tracked indices with usable data fell over the week, led by the Hang Seng (-3.30%) and ASX 200 (-2.94%); the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 (-2.41%) was the hardest-hit US benchmark, while the Nasdaq 100 (-0.60%) proved the most resilient major index.
• Europe and the UK: the DAX (-1.83%) and FTSE 100 (-1.67%) tracked the broader sell-off before a Friday bounce, the FTSE helped by a surprise UK GDP beat and falling oil.
• FX: the yen surged on Bank of Japan tightening bets and a carry-trade unwind, with USD/JPY down 1.74% and EUR/JPY down 1.88%; the US Dollar Index ended essentially flat at 99.12 (-0.04%) in a genuinely mixed dollar picture.
• Commodities: gold and silver fell alongside equities rather than acting as safe havens, down 1.83% and 2.26% respectively, as a hot, energy-driven PPI print lifted Fed hike odds toward 60-70%.
• Week ahead: a rare three-central-bank week, with the Fed (Wednesday 16 September), Bank of England (Thursday 17) and Bank of Japan (Friday 18) all deciding policy; the Wednesday Fed decision, alongside its Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, is the dominant catalyst. Overall bias: elevated volatility and a cautious, two-way risk tone, with the unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation able to reignite the oil-driven inflation shock at any point.

Download the full report (PDF), including the central bank scoreboard, market scorecard, day-by-day calendar of key events, and the full week-ahead trading bias.

Educational only, not financial advice.