The Weekly Edge: Week-Ahead & Look-Back, Mon 31 Aug – Fri 4 Sep 2026

The Weekly Edge for the week of Monday 31 August to Friday 4 September 2026 is out. It covers global indices, FX and commodities: what moved last week, why, and what to watch in the holiday-shortened week ahead.

Look-back highlights

• Oil ran the week. Renewed US–Iran hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude bids high: WTI settled near $91.48, up about 9.7% for its strongest week since July, with Brent around $95 to $96.
• Payrolls turned hawkish. August non-farm payrolls printed +162,000 against a consensus near 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. With the Fed running an inflation-first regime, September hike odds moved back above 50% after Governor Waller's dovish remarks had pulled them to a coin flip.
• US flat, Europe lower. S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq 100 +0.4%, Dow -0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.1%. The DAX fell about 2.0% and the CAC 40 about 1.5% as a 3.3% euro-area inflation print and a fully priced ECB hike pushed bund yields toward 3.35%; the FTSE 100 was flat (+0.1%).
• Asia mixed. Nikkei 225 -2.1% on yen strength, Hang Seng +0.3%, Nifty 50 -1.2% (a fourth straight weekly loss), ASX 200 -1.0% as firm Q2 GDP lifted RBA hike odds.
• The yen was the FX standout. USD/JPY fell about 2.4% to near 156.2 as markets priced roughly an 80% chance of a Bank of Japan hike on 17–18 September; GBP/JPY (-2.5%) and EUR/JPY (-2.2%) followed. DXY slipped about 0.5% to near 99.2; EUR/USD firmed 0.3% to 1.161; GBP/USD eased 0.1% to 1.352; AUD/USD gained 0.6%; USD/CAD fell 0.5% after the Bank of Canada held at 2.25%.
• Metals and bonds. Spot gold ended about 0.7% lower near $4,429 and silver futures lost around 1.5%. The US 2-year yield rose to about 4.37% (a fresh 52-week high intraday), the 10-year to about 4.78% and the 30-year to roughly 5.25%.

The week ahead

Overall bias: mildly risk-off with a firmer dollar into US CPI; oil-sensitive and rate-sensitive assets stay headline-driven. US and Canadian markets are closed on Monday 7 September (Labor Day). The ECB on Thursday 10 September is the week's top event, with a 25bp hike to 2.50% fully priced and the guidance the real market mover. US PPI on Thursday and August CPI on Friday (headline seen at 3.4% to 3.5% year on year, core 2.4%) land with the Fed already in blackout ahead of the 15–16 September FOMC, so the inflation prints will effectively decide hike-or-hold. UK July GDP on Friday, China trade and inflation data, Japan's final Q2 GDP, two RBA speeches and an Apple product event complete the picture. OPEC+ meets on Sunday 6 September, just outside the window.

The full report includes the market scorecard, central bank scoreboard, a day-by-day look-back, the key impact events calendar (BST) and how to trade the week for swing and day traders.

Download the full report (PDF)

Educational only, not financial advice.