The Weekly Edge: Week-Ahead & Look-Back, Mon 28 Sep – Fri 2 Oct 2026

Welcome to this week's edition of The Weekly Edge, our look-back at global indices, FX and commodities for Mon 28 Sep – Fri 2 Oct 2026, with the key events for the week ahead.

Executive summary

• Rates and oil led the week. Treasury yields stayed near multi-decade highs and Brent held above $100, but Friday's weak US payrolls (+29,000 against roughly 85,000–90,000 expected) cut implied odds of an October Fed hike to roughly 16–18%, from about 64% a week earlier.
• US equities: S&P 500 -0.27%, Dow -1.26%, Nasdaq 100 +0.65%, with Nvidia at a record high.
• Europe bore the brunt: eurozone inflation rose to 3.8% in September, and a further ECB hike on 29 October is highly priced. IBEX 35 -3.1%, FTSE 100 -2.2%, CAC 40 -2.2%, DAX -0.7%.
• Asia: Nikkei 225 +2.9%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Nifty 50 -3.1%, ASX 200 +0.2% after the RBA hiked 25bp to 4.60%.
• FX and commodities: Dollar Index +0.95%, EUR/USD -1.2%; gold -3.4%, silver -6.6%; WTI -1.4% to $91.11 after the G7 agreed a release of up to 100 million barrels of reserves.
• Week ahead: no scheduled G10 rate decision. Watch US ISM Services on Monday, the minutes of the Fed's September meeting on Wednesday (19:00 BST), the ECB meeting accounts on Thursday, and Canadian jobs plus preliminary University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. Mainland China is shut for National Day through 7 October.

Overall bias: cautiously constructive for US equities and precious metals on lower Fed-hike odds, but two-way elsewhere, with yields, oil headlines and potentially hawkish minutes as the swing factors.

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Educational only, not financial advice.