The Weekly Edge: Week-Ahead & Look-Back, Mon 21 – Fri 25 Sep 2026

Welcome to this week's edition of The Weekly Edge, HARKO's week-ahead and look-back across global indices, FX and commodities. Last week was defined by a single, coherent theme: a hawkish global rate-repricing shock that lifted the US dollar broadly and pushed Treasury yields to multi-decade highs.

The look-back: Mon 21 to Fri 25 September

• Rates: the US 10-year yield touched roughly 5.2% (its highest since 2007) and the 30-year briefly cleared 5.5%, after hot US PMI data lifted market-implied odds of a further Fed hike on 28 October to around 70%.
• US equities: the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.26% to record territory on AI and megacap leadership; the S&P 500 gained 1.27% and the Dow 0.28%, while the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 slipped 0.76%.
• Europe: a modest positive week, led by the IBEX 35 (+0.95%); the DAX (+0.40%) snapped a three-week losing run, with the FTSE 100 up 0.34%.
• Asia-Pacific: the Nikkei 225 rallied 2.07% on a weaker yen, while the Hang Seng (-0.97%), Nifty 50 (-0.88%, a seventh straight weekly loss) and ASX 200 (-0.80%) all fell.
• FX: the Dollar Index posted a second consecutive weekly gain; GBP/USD fell 1.10%, EUR/USD 0.82% and AUD/USD 1.40%, while USD/JPY finished only 0.26% higher after Friday intervention jawboning.
• Commodities: gold eased 2.14% to about $4,286/oz and silver 3.50% as real yields rose; WTI crude fell 3.82% on US-Iran de-escalation hopes, even as Brent held above $100.

The week ahead: Mon 28 September to Fri 2 October

Overall bias: cautiously dollar-bullish, two-way in risk assets. Five of the six central banks we track are now hiking or leaning hawkish, an unusual synchronised tightening response to an energy-driven inflation shock. The key events are Tuesday's live RBA decision (around 60% priced for a 25bp hike to 4.60%), US Core PCE on Wednesday, US ISM Manufacturing on Thursday and Friday's non-farm payrolls, the last major US data point before the 27 to 28 October FOMC meeting. China and Hong Kong close for Golden Week from Thursday 1 October, thinning Asian liquidity into the back half of the week.

The full report covers the central bank scoreboard, the complete market scorecard across indices, FX and commodities, a day-by-day key events calendar (BST) and our week-ahead diagnostic bias matrix.

Download the full report (PDF)

Educational only, not financial advice.