The Weekly Edge: Week-Ahead & Look-Back, Mon 17 – Fri 21 Aug 2026

Welcome to this week's edition of The Weekly Edge, our look back at the trading week just gone and our guide to the week ahead. Here is a short summary; the full report is available to download below.

Executive summary

Wall Street snapped a three-week winning streak in the week to Friday 21 August. The dominant story was a sliding US dollar, after the US Treasury moved to roughly double its long-dated debt buybacks with federal debt topping 40 trillion dollars, pulling the greenback and long-end yields lower and lifting commodities. A firm Friday bounce trimmed the weekly damage but did not erase it.

• Equities: the S&P 500 fell 1.43%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.45% and the Dow eased 0.85%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng led the majors (up 3.55%) on China technology optimism, while Tokyo's Nikkei was the worst (down 3.93%) as a firmer yen hit exporters; the commodity-heavy FTSE 100 eked out a 0.62% gain.
• FX and the dollar: the Dollar Index fell 0.87%. The euro pushed toward 1.17 (up 0.92%), sterling firmed to 1.365 (up 0.82%) and the Australian dollar led the majors (up 1.22%). Safe-haven flows favoured the Swiss franc, with EUR/CHF down 1.63%.
• Commodities: the standout asset class. WTI crude rose 5.66% above 86 dollars, gold added 5.56% to a three-month high near 4,600 dollars and silver jumped 6.89% back through 70 dollars.
• Week ahead: no central bank delivers a rate decision, but US July PCE and Nvidia's results both land on Wednesday, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday. With the Fed on a hawkish hold at 3.50 to 3.75%, the risk is that firm inflation or a hawkish Warsh sparks a dollar rebound and unwinds part of the commodity and equity moves.

Overall bias: cautious and two-way, with volatility skewed around Wednesday's PCE and Nvidia and Friday's Warsh keynote. Expect thin, month-end liquidity into the final week of summer.

Download the full report (PDF)

Educational only, not financial advice.