The Weekly Edge: Week-Ahead & Look-Back, Mon 10 – Fri 14 Aug 2026

The Weekly Edge is HARKO's weekly briefing on global markets: a look back at the week just gone (Mon 10 – Fri 14 Aug) and a trader's map for the week ahead (Mon 17 – Fri 21 Aug).

Last week in brief

• Inflation stole the show. July US CPI rose just 0.1% on the month, taking the annual rate to 3.4% with core at 2.5%, its lowest since March 2021; flat producer prices and a 0.6% fall in retail sales cut September Fed hike odds to roughly 30%. The S&P 500 cleared 7,800 for the first time before finishing at 7,786, up 0.4% for a third straight weekly gain, and the Russell 2000 printed a fresh record close.
• Asia produced the week's most spectacular move. The Nikkei 225 surged 4.6% to a record 68,714 as the yen fell about 1% to 159.3 per dollar, its biggest weekly loss in three months; the Hang Seng dropped 2.1% as Beijing signalled no broad stimulus.
• Oil carried the geopolitical premium. With Washington calling its blockade of Iranian ports open-ended, WTI jumped about 5.4% to $82.40 and Brent to $88.52. Energy-sensitive Europe suffered: the FTSE 100 fell every session, down 1.4% in its first losing week in five, as UK Q2 GDP growth slowed to 0.4%.
• Bonds wobbled. The US 10-year yield touched an 18-month high near 4.70% midweek before Friday's weak retail sales pulled it back to about 4.65%. The dollar index finished broadly flat near 99.6.

The week ahead

Overall bias: cautiously risk-on. Wednesday evening's FOMC minutes (the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, carrying three dissents for a hike and the widest committee split since 2016) are the single most important release, with UK CPI the same morning testing the Bank of England's forecasts. Friday stacks Japan's national CPI, the yen-carry tripwire, against flash PMIs across Europe and the US, while Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart give a fresh read on the US consumer. Jackson Hole (27–29 August) sits just beyond the horizon.

Download the full report (PDF)

Educational only, not financial advice.