Gas Explodes to an Eleven-Week High as Bulls Retake Control — The Weekly Gas Edge, 26 September 2026

Natural gas just posted its biggest weekly gain in months, ripping 11.86% higher and closing decisively above both of its key trend filters.

The week of 21–25 September delivered one of the most violent moves of the year for NYMEX/IG natural gas. Price opened Monday at $2.883, sank to a week low of $2.819, then exploded higher on Tuesday and never looked back, finishing Friday at $3.225 — an eleven-week high, the strongest level since 8 July. This wasn't a thin-air squeeze: falling US production, a pipeline outage in West Virginia, a cooler turn in the weather models and a historically tight storage build all pointed the same way. By Friday's close the market sat firmly above both its 200-period trend filters, though after an 11.9% week, the near-term question is whether the rally has further to run or needs to catch its breath first.

What moved gas this week

• Monday: a soft, seasonal start — price drifted down 1.91% to the week low of $2.819 on a quiet session with no clear catalyst.
• Tuesday: the blast-off. A cooler shift in the weather models met a fast-fading production picture and a Mountaineer Xpress pipeline outage in West Virginia; price gapped up and surged 12.20% straight through both 200 EMAs, flipping the trend bullish.
• Wednesday: a plateau that held the gains — price probed higher, slipped back, and closed almost flat (−0.09%), absorbing the prior day's surge rather than giving it back.
• Thursday: a storage-day thrust to the week high of $3.395, before easing to close up 3.25%. The EIA's +53 Bcf build was in line with consensus but well below the norm for the time of year, reinforcing the tightening story.
• Friday: a give-back as the weather forecasts eased toward normal and the pipeline outage looked set to clear — price faded to close down 1.50%, though it held firmly above both trend filters into the weekend.

The week in numbers

• Week high / low: $3.395 (Thursday, the highest since 8 July) / $2.819 (Monday)
• 5-day Average True Range: $0.190 per day — more than double the prior week's range
• EIA storage vs 5-year average: stocks are running about 2.9% above the five-year average, narrowing from 3.7% the week before, after a below-normal 53 Bcf injection
• Trend regime at Friday's close: Bullish — price closed at $3.225, well above both the 1-hour 200 EMA at $3.060 and the 4-hour 200 EMA at $2.933

The week ahead: bullish, but extended

The overall bias into the week of 28 September is bullish but extended. The structural case remains intact — production is at multi-month lows, the storage surplus is narrowing, and the market had been carrying a heavy net-short position that has only partly unwound — but a single week that gained almost 12% and closed a long way above its own moving averages tends to pause before it extends, rather than simply run on. Thursday's EIA storage report at 15:30 UK is the pivot event: another below-normal build would extend the tightening narrative and could press price back toward the highs, while a build back near or above the five-year norm would support a deeper pullback. This is also October contract expiry week, with the front month rolling to November on Monday, which can add some early-week noise around the roll.

Inside the full report

The full edition of The Weekly Gas Edge goes deeper into every one of the moves above — the hour-by-hour detail of Tuesday's breakout, the production and LNG feedgas figures behind the rally, the day-of-week and liquidity studies, and the key support and resistance levels either side of Friday's close. It also closes with three conditional swing-trade setups built around the 200 EMA framework for subscribers who want to map the coming week onto a specific plan.

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