Bullish to Bearish: Natural Gas Flips as Both 200 EMAs Break — The Weekly Gas Edge, 12 September 2026

Natural gas broke down this week, giving up the trend filters it had held for a fortnight and closing beneath both 200 EMAs for the first time since late August.

Front-month NYMEX gas opened Tuesday at $2.950 — Monday 7 September was the US Labor Day holiday, so there was no full session — and closed Friday at $2.831, a fall of 4.03% across the four trading days. The week fell in steps and bounced only once: a failed retest of the early-September ceiling, a decisive break through the moving averages, a Thursday storage-day washout to a three-week low, and a quiet Friday give-back that left price pinned under the filters into the weekend. Record production, a growing storage surplus and a bearish government outlook outweighed strong LNG demand and lingering late-summer heat — this week, the supply side won.

What moved gas this week

• Monday: US Labor Day holiday — no full session; gas slipped modestly over the long weekend as the market reopened near $2.950.
• Tuesday: a last reach for the highs failed. Price touched $3.014 in a retest of the early-September ceiling before sellers took control, closing down 1.53%.
• Wednesday: the week's decisive move — a 3.11% slide drove price through both the 1-hour and 4-hour 200 EMAs, flipping the trend regime bearish on cooler weather models and a bearish September STEO.
• Thursday: the EIA's storage report showed a larger-than-expected 40 Bcf injection, pushing price to a three-week low of $2.753 before short-covering produced a 1.25% bounce into the close.
• Friday: a quiet 0.32% give-back left the market pinned just beneath the moving averages, with no data to shift the picture.

The week in numbers

• Week high / low: $3.014 (Tuesday) / $2.753 (Thursday)
• 5-day ATR: $0.101 (≈101 IG points) per day
• EIA storage: +40 Bcf to 3,254 Bcf, a surplus of 148 Bcf (+4.8%) to the five-year average, and 79 Bcf below a year ago
• Trend regime: BEARISH — Friday's close of $2.831 sits below both the 1-hour 200 EMA ($2.867) and the 4-hour 200 EMA ($2.856)

The week ahead

The overall bias is cautiously bearish. Price sits below both 200 EMAs after breaking through them, record production and a widening storage surplus argue for selling strength rather than chasing the lows, and a bearish government outlook reinforces the supply story. But the market is already three weeks off its highs, and strong LNG demand plus lingering Southern heat provide a floor against a heavy net-short position that could squeeze on any hot surprise. The pivot for the week is Thursday's EIA storage print at 15:30 UK — the single most explosive scheduled hour of the gas week, and the moment most likely to decide whether the bearish break holds or the market finds its floor.

Inside the full report

The full edition of The Weekly Gas Edge goes well beyond this summary: the complete daily look-back with hourly context, a market-structure study of when gas actually trades and moves, the full week-ahead driver table and event calendar, and three conditional swing-trade setups built around the 200 EMA framework — with exact entry zones, stops and targets for anyone who wants to see how the analysis translates into a plan. It's free to download in full below.

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